Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 0.339679 0.385770 0.435801 0.494144 0.560322 0.633067 0.719119
2025-09-28 0.267523 0.327476 0.397519 0.485407 0.592788 0.719798 0.881574
2025-10-05 0.226943 0.297211 0.384927 0.502504 0.656120 0.850222 1.114527
2025-10-12 0.188722 0.263116 0.361858 0.502575 0.698212 0.961028 1.341788
2025-10-19 0.160829 0.237696 0.345724 0.508727 0.748879 1.090471 1.614859
2025-10-26 0.140654 0.219531 0.336468 0.522604 0.812129 1.246572 1.950660
2025-11-02 0.117106 0.192347 0.309613 0.505853 0.827004 1.333650 2.197563
2025-11-09 0.096509 0.166296 0.280289 0.480237 0.823453 1.390991 2.406107
2025-11-16 0.082681 0.149055 0.262377 0.470170 0.843288 1.488285 2.695213
2025-11-23 0.071062 0.133699 0.245209 0.458444 0.857999 1.578320 2.985027
2025-11-30 0.064502 0.126384 0.241016 0.469145 0.914281 1.749470 3.448168
2025-12-07 0.055458 0.112928 0.223478 0.451977 0.915313 1.818233 3.726981
2025-12-14 0.048702 0.103144 0.211971 0.445774 0.938837 1.937578 4.133794
2025-12-21 0.042638 0.093798 0.199938 0.436661 0.955205 2.045631 4.536794
2025-12-28 0.039525 0.090194 0.199158 0.451115 1.023641 2.271889 5.230769
2026-01-04 0.035553 0.084050 0.192014 0.450513 1.059059 2.432939 5.807716
2026-01-11 0.032489 0.079480 0.187653 0.455538 1.108157 2.632142 6.507056
2026-01-18 0.030234 0.076457 0.186366 0.467599 1.175859 2.884798 7.377824
2026-01-25 0.026610 0.069478 0.174643 0.452362 1.174529 2.972908 7.856256
2026-02-01 0.023045 0.062057 0.160704 0.429286 1.149685 2.999337 8.181504
2026-02-08 0.020633 0.057261 0.152642 0.420167 1.159711 3.115859 8.765913
2026-02-15 0.018448 0.052713 0.144531 0.409604 1.164171 3.218590 9.330833
2026-02-22 0.017345 0.050998 0.143728 0.419098 1.225769 3.485002 10.404135